Confidential No More: Investor–State Arbitration Draws Daily Media Attention, Report Finds

Investor–state disputes—often assumed to be confidential proceedings between investors and governments—are anything but private in practice, according to new research by Thorndon Partners, a London-based consultancy specializing in litigation and disputes communications.

The firm’s report, Beyond Dispute: Navigating Public Scrutiny in Investment Treaty Arbitration, finds that investor–state cases generated over 1,600 media articles in 2024 alone, an average of four stories per day, as governments and investors sparred in public as much as before arbitral panels.

“Confidentiality is not guaranteed,” said Charles McKeon, co-founder of Thorndon Partners and author of the report. “Paying arbitration awards, or settling with creditors involved in these cases, is as much a political decision as it is a legal outcome. Governments are wary of the flak that can arise from ‘handing over taxpayer money’—and the temptation is to stall, making it the next administration’s problem.”

The rise of visibility in a once-closed system

Thorndon’s analysis, which draws on media scraping tools and case data from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) and other tribunals, challenges one of the core assumptions of investor–state arbitration—that it operates largely behind closed doors.

The study found that 87% of ICSID cases registered in 2024 attracted news coverage when filed, while 18% were reported in the press before filing. Among arbitration seats, London was the most frequently covered jurisdiction, drawing 31% of all reporting since 2020, followed closely by Singapore.

Soaring stakes—and unpaid awards

Beyond visibility, the financial scale and political complexity of investor–state arbitration continue to expand. The number of disputes more than doubled from 2015 to 2024, while the average award to successful investors exceeded $250 million.

Yet, compliance is eroding. The number of unpaid awards jumped 209% between 2022 and 2024, reaching a cumulative total of over $83 billion in outstanding obligations.

Thorndon’s data also suggest patterns in when and why governments pay. Among countries that settled or paid awards between 2021 and 2025, four out of five had national elections within the preceding year, and a similar proportion saw rising bond issuances and improving credit outlooks—signals that may foreshadow payment decisions.

A shifting landscape for funders and sovereigns

For funders and claimants, the report offers new insight into the interplay between political economy and enforcement risk—a core concern in the litigation finance community. McKeon suggested that the fact that so many of these cases are public means that the pressure points extend beyond the tribunal, with credit ratings, election cycles, and investor sentiment all playing a role in compliance. Rising public scrutiny, longer enforcement timelines, and politically influenced payment behavior all affect valuation and strategy.

With more than 1,200 pending treaty cases worldwide and an enforcement gap that continues to widen, investor–state arbitration has become a public arena in its own right—one where legal argument, economic leverage, and political optics collide.

Confidentiality is often cited as one of arbitration’s virtues, but the report concludes that’s a myth—and one that both investors and states can no longer afford to rely on.